A new Covid outbreak is expected in a week – forecast by KSE experts

647 0
The number of hospitalizations per week increased by 17% at the beginning of August, compared to previous 3-5%.
Photo from open sources

Photo from open sources

Twenty regions of Ukraine are showing an increase in the level of Covid-19 hospitalization, which indicates a possible outbreak within the next week. These are the conclusions of researchers from the Kyiv School of Economics, published on August, 3.

«Regarding the level of morbidity among large European countries, Ukraine continues to be on the usual 13th place. The average incidence rate over the past two weeks is 20 people per 100,000 population», – the researchers reported a week ago.

The number of hospitalizations per week increased by 17% at the beginning of August, compared to previous 3-5%. The burden on the health care system began to increase.

«Now, we’re not talking yet about the beginning of an outbreak in the country, because hospitalisations are at the level of plateaus around small numbers, and the increase is the result of fluctuations. However, in the next week, we expect that hospitalisations will already exceed discharges», – said Yurii Hanychenko, head of the Center for Health Economics at KSE.

The most risky situation is in Dnipropetrovsk, Odesa, Donetsk, Zhytomyr, Zakarpattia and Khmelnytsky regions, which account for half of hospitalizations. Kyiv, at least in early August, is in a «temporary security» zone, researchers say.

At the same time, hospital bed mortality and occupancy rates are still among the lowest this year.

«Against the rising mortality in other European countries, mortality in Ukraine has moved to seventh place from fifth and is now at the plateau level. According to the Center for Health Economics of the Kyiv School of Economics (KSE), mortality in Ukraine will remain at the plateau level in the near future», – the researchers predict.

Let us recall the warning of the World Health Organization that the Delta variant, already present in 92 countries, could cause a new deadly wave of coronavirus infection. Ukrainian Ministry of Health also predicts a new wave of coronavirus in the fall.

Translated by Vitalii Holich

To receive our weekly email digest of stories, please follow us on Substack.

 


TAGS: Covid, outbreak

Читайте також:
+
Щодня наша команда працює над тим, щоб інформувати Вас про найважливіше в місті та області. За роки своєї праці ми довели, що «Твоє місто» - це медіа, якому справді можна довіряти. Долучіться до Спільноти Прихильників «Твого міста» та збережіть незалежне медіа для громади. Кожен внесок має значення!